You Can't Win With The 'HQ Trivia' App
Everyone's two favorite things: a PSA, with math.
HQ Trivia is a genius app.
It sits at that perfect sweet spot between tech, timing, and concept, afforded only to a few people every year (think 'Chocolate Rain' to 2007, or Donald Trump to 2016), and there's little question any longer that its creators—also the duo that brought you Vine—are certified app wizards. Wherever they are now—whether it's swimming in a private pool filled with hundreds, or wiping themselves with gold toilet paper—I tip my hat to them.
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You, on the other hand...we need to talk.
How much money have you made playing HQ Trivia?
a) >$200
b) Ten bucks or so
c) Zilch
You can't win money playing HQ Trivia. It's true: one can, and a few people do, win money from this app. Maybe even someone you know knows someone else who won once. But you and I? We don't have a shot. And I can basically prove it. Allow me to explain...
To believe you can win any money in HQ Trivia, you must do one of two things: either you believe yourself to be a genius, or you're ignoring simple math.
As of this writing, about 500,000-600,000 players tune into any given round of HQ, with the average winning pot usually sitting at $1,500 or $2,000 (occasionally $4,000 or even $10,000, but not often). Because of the discrepancy of these figures, one of two outcomes can be had in any given round: either a lot of people win a little, or a few people win a lot. HQ doesn't release its internal data, but it appears that on average some dozen or so players win any given round (sometimes no one wins, sometimes a few do, sometimes 40 or 50 do, but usually not more than a handful or two).
But you play the game for fun. Even winning just a little money would be worth the screenshot you can send to all your friends, knowing you went 12 rounds and came out a winner.
What are the chances that any given HQ Trivia player will win any given round?
a) 20%
b) 2%
c) 0.00002%
Answer: if on average about a dozen players win any given game, from a field of some 600,000 total, any single player in that lot would represent 0.00002% of that population. (We can talk about standard deviations here, but it'll only account for some 0.00001% or so in the final tally.)
There, of course, is more to this question than simple division. We've yet to account for skill and knowledge, for instance--perhaps you're very well-read and intelligent, so you believe your chances are higher.